Manchester City’s fight against the Premier League is entering its next phase, and the question now is no longer whether the club did wrong but how severely they should be made to pay for it. An independent commission ruled last month that City had committed serious and persistent breaches of the league’s financial rules across nine seasons, upholding 114 of the 115 charges brought against them. City have appealed, as expected, and a fresh three person commission will now decide what happens next.
That decision could, in theory, include the most extreme sanction available: expulsion from the Premier League altogether. It remains on the list of options alongside fines, points deductions and other sporting sanctions. But according to senior Premier League sources who spoke to Sky Sports, the idea of City actually being thrown out of the division is one that would leave the game’s own administrators stunned if it ever came to pass.
A Punishment With No Precedent to Follow
Part of the problem is that nobody has ever had to work out what a case like this actually warrants. The Premier League has no preset scale of sanctions for financial breaches on this scale, which means the new commission is effectively being asked to set a precedent rather than follow one. The nearest comparisons, Everton’s six point deduction in 2023/24 and the historic 21 and 30 point deductions handed to Derby County and Luton Town respectively, involved a single breach or a club already outside the top flight. None of them involved more than a hundred charges stretched across nearly a decade.
If the commission did recommend expulsion, it would not be the end of the story either. Premier League clubs would need to vote on whether to accept that recommendation, and two senior executives told Sky Sports they would be “staggered” and “amazed” if fifteen of them backed it. Their reasoning was blunt rather than sentimental. Removing a club with the commercial pull of Manchester City, built around a squad containing Erling Haaland and Phil Foden, would hand broadcasters grounds to demand compensation, dent sponsorship income across the whole division and damage the Premier League’s standing as the most watched competition on the planet. Even clubs who have spent years calling for City to be held to account are reportedly wary of a punishment that could end up costing them financially as much as it costs City.
There is also the practical question of where City would go if expulsion were somehow enforced. Dropping into the Championship would require a separate vote among all 72 EFL clubs, and reports suggest there is little appetite there either. Championship clubs are said to be concerned that a relegated Manchester City, still able to call on vastly greater resources than anyone else in the division, would simply steamroll its way back up at the first opportunity, distorting the promotion race for everyone else in the process.
Carragher and Rivals Want Years, Not Months
That does not mean there is any appetite among City’s rivals for a punishment that feels like a slap on the wrist either. Speaking at the Legends of Football Awards, Jamie Carragher set out the view held by plenty of supporters of other clubs when he argued that any sanction has to reflect the length of time over which the wrongdoing took place. “It has to be done this season,” Carragher said of a resolution to the case. “The punishment, whatever it should be, I don’t think it can be a one off punishment for one season, because this has gone on for years and years, so I think the punishment should go on for years and years.”
That sentiment appears to be shared more widely among Premier League clubs than any specific appetite for expulsion. Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham have all already reserved their right to pursue separate compensation claims, arguing they lost out competitively and financially while City were breaching the rules that were supposed to keep the competition fair. A points deduction confined to a single campaign would do little to address nine seasons worth of advantage, which is why the expectation inside the game is that whatever the new commission decides, it will be constructed to have consequences well beyond this season alone.
Where the Case Goes From Here
City continue to insist they have evidence that will clear their name and maintain that every charge is without merit, a position they have held consistently since the case was first brought. The same three panel commission that sat through the original 42 day hearing will now consider the appeal, with the Premier League keen to have the punishment stage resolved during the current campaign, even if there is no guarantee of that timetable holding. Legal observers have suggested the wider saga, including the possibility of High Court challenges over process, could run well into 2027 before it is finally settled.
For now, City remain in the Premier League, continue to compete as normal under Enzo Maresca, and face no immediate sporting sanction while the appeal is heard. What has changed is the tone of the conversation around them. Where the initial verdict last month was about guilt or innocence, this stage is about consequence, and the people who run the competition itself appear just as uncertain as everyone else about what a fair one actually looks like.
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