Nottingham Forest have not been short of effort, or opportunity, in front of goal this season. What they have been short of is goals themselves, and that imbalance now sits right at the centre of Oliver Glasner’s opening weeks in charge. Sunday brings Arsenal, the reigning Premier League champions, to the City Ground, and Forest’s head coach knows exactly what his side need to show: that good approach play can finally start turning into something on the scoreboard.
Forest sit 15th in the table with five points from six matches, their build up play often encouraging, their finishing summed up by one stark number. They have scored five goals in the Premier League this season, and not one of them has come at home. Only one other side in the division has managed fewer. It is a pattern Glasner inherited rather than created, but one he is increasingly being judged on solving.
A Problem Built on Missed Chances, Not a Shortage of Them
The underlying numbers tell a more forgiving story than the table does. Forest have had the third most shots of any Premier League club this season, yet rank 19th for conversion rate, with their actual goals total roughly five fewer than their expected goals would suggest they should have scored. That gap was never clearer than at Crystal Palace, when Forest had 24 shots and hit the woodwork three times, yet still lost 3-1.
Glasner described it afterwards, in comments reported by Sky Sports, as his side’s best attacking performance of the season, adding: “If you miss a few chances, we all know, if this gets into your head, then you have a problem.” It is a tidy summary of where this season has stalled, not through a shortage of ideas, but through a shortage of belief in front of goal once those ideas create a sight of it.
One Player’s Response, From the Bench
One of the more interesting threads to emerge from the Palace defeat involves a player who did not even start it. Chris Wood, now 34 and often restricted to a place among the substitutes behind club record signing Liam Delap, missed a close range header that would have cut Forest’s deficit that afternoon. Rather than disappear quietly into the dressing room, he asked the club’s analysts to pull the chance up from several camera angles so he could see precisely where it went wrong, then addressed his team mates directly, telling them never to lose confidence in their own ability because the next chance would come.
Glasner, who admits he was never much of a goalscorer himself, has effectively handed Wood an informal coaching role on finishing and did not hold back in his praise afterwards, calling him “maybe one of our best role models we have in the club.” It says something about where Forest find themselves that encouragement is being drawn from a player currently watching most matches from the bench, albeit one with 92 Premier League goals providing the authority to back it up.
Why Sunday Is a Different Kind of Test
Arsenal arrive at the City Ground on Sunday (4.30pm kick off, live on Sky Sports Main Event) sitting second in the table, three points behind leaders Manchester City, with their only defeat of the season having come away at Brighton. Mikel Arteta’s side have conceded fewer expected goals than any other team in the division this season, with Forest themselves not far behind in that particular measure. Glasner has been clear eyed about the scale of the task awaiting his players, saying simply that Arsenal “were outrunning the opposition every single game this season.”
Arsenal travel to Nottingham in good heart too, having beaten Lille 3-0 in the Champions League in midweek, a result that leaves them sharing top spot in that competition’s league phase. It is a reminder that whatever patience Glasner is asking supporters for domestically, his opponents this weekend are showing none of the same hesitancy in front of goal that has defined Forest’s season so far.
Forest’s home form makes the fixture more daunting still. They have won just once at the City Ground in their last 14 Premier League matches there, with eight draws and five defeats in that run, and have failed to score in eight of those last 13 home league games. A third consecutive goalless home draw would normally be filed as damage limitation. Against this particular opponent, Glasner would probably take it gladly.
The Bigger Picture
There is an uncomfortable parallel sitting underneath all of this. Forest had an almost identical league record at this stage last season, when Ange Postecoglou became the club’s second managerial change of that campaign. Nobody at the City Ground is suggesting Glasner’s position mirrors that one, not least given his own pedigree. He won the Europa League with Eintracht Frankfurt and the Conference League with Crystal Palace, the very club who beat Forest earlier this month, only months before taking this job. The underlying numbers suggest better days are close, but the context still explains why patience around the club feels thinner than the calendar alone would indicate.
Team news offers Glasner a little encouragement. Morgan Gibbs-White, the Premier League’s most productive creator so far this season, is a doubt with a minor muscle issue but could return to full training this weekend, while Nikola Milenković, who has been managing bone bruising in his knee, trained on Friday and is in contention to strengthen the back line. Beyond Sunday there is no respite in the fixture list either, with Manchester City and Chelsea both due at the City Ground in Forest’s next two home matches.
Glasner’s message to his players has been consistent all week: create two, three, four good chances against Arsenal and take at least one of them. Whether Forest can finally turn promising positions into the goals their performances have threatened all season will say plenty about where this team, and this manager, are really heading.
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